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Volume 26, Number 5—May 2020
Research Letter

Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

Zhanwei Du1, Lin Wang1, Simon Cauchemez, Xiaoke Xu, Xianwen Wang, Benjamin J. Cowling, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (Z. Du, L.A. Meyers); Institut Pasteur, Paris, France (L. Wang, S. Cauchemez); Dalian Minzu University, Dalian, China (X. Xu); Dalian University of Technology, Dalian (X. Wang); The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (B.J. Cowling); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L.A. Meyers)

Main Article

Figure

Risks for transportation of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) from Wuhan, China, before a quarantine was imposed on January 23, 2020. A) Daily travel volume to and from Wuhan, given as a percentage of the Wuhan population. Gray shading indicates the start of Spring Festival season on January 10, 2020, a peak travel period in China. B) Estimated and reported daily prevalence of COVID-19 in Wuhan. The green line and shading indicate model estimates of cumulative cases since December 1, 201

Figure. Risks for transportation of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) from Wuhan, China, before a quarantine was imposed on January 23, 2020. A) Daily travel volume to and from Wuhan, given as a percentage of the Wuhan population. Gray shading indicates the start of Spring Festival season on January 10, 2020, a peak travel period in China. B) Estimated and reported daily prevalence of COVID-19 in Wuhan. The green line and shading indicate model estimates of cumulative cases since December 1, 2019, with 95% credible interval bounds, assuming an epidemic doubling time of 7.31 days (95% credible interval 6.26–9.66 days). Black dots indicate cumulative confirmed case counts during January 1–22, 2020 (10). Gray shading at right indicates the start of Spring Festival season. C) Probability that >1 COVID-19 case infected in Wuhan traveled to cities in China by January 22, 2020. The 131 cities with a risk threshold >50% are indicated in shades of orange; 239 cities below that threshold are indicated in shades of blue. Map generated by using Mapbox (https://www.mapbox.com).

Main Article

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1These first authors contributed equally to this article.

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