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Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020
Research

Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions

Pablo Martinez De Salazar1, René Niehus1, Aimee Taylor1, Caroline O’Flaherty Buckee, and Marc LipsitchComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Main Article

Figure 1

Regression plot of locations with possible undetected imported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by air travel volume from Wuhan, China. Air travel volume measured in number of persons/day. No. cases refers to possible undetected imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. Solid line indicates the expected imported-and-reported case counts for locations. Dashed lines represent 95% prediction interval bounds smoothed for all locations. Purple dots indicate locations with high s

Figure 1. Plot showing imported-and-reported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) against air travel volume (no. persons/day) from Wuhan, China. No. cases refers to possible imported-and-reported SARS-CoV-2 cases. Solid line indicates the expected imported-and-reported case counts for locations based on the model fit to high surveillance locations (slope = 3.3 cases/100 passengers; p<0.001) . Dashed lines represent for the same model the smoothed 95% prediction interval bounds. Purple dots indicate locations with high surveillance capacity according to category 2 of the Global Health Security Index. Cluster A is composed of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Finland, and Sweden, locations with 1 imported-and-reported case and air travel volume of <20 passengers per day. Cluster B is composed of 161 locations with no imported-and-reported cases and estimated air travel <10 passengers per day. GER, Germany; NZ, New Zealand; RUS, Russia; UAE, United Arab Emirates; UK, United Kingdom; USA, United States of America.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: April 02, 2020
Page updated: June 18, 2020
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