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Volume 31, Number 4—April 2025
Research

Predictive Model for Estimating Annual Ebolavirus Spillover Potential

Carson T. TelfordComments to Author , Brian R. Amman, Jonathan S. Towner, Joel M. Montgomery, Justin Lessler, and Trevor Shoemaker
Author affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (C.T. Telford, B.R. Amman, J.S. Towner, J.M. Montgomery, T. Shoemaker); University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA (C.T. Telford, J. Lessler); Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA (J. Lessler)

Main Article

Figure 4

Change in estimated spillover RORs in 2022 compared with 2021 from a predictive model for estimating annual Ebolavirus spillover potential. A, B) Ratio of RORs for spillover in 2022 relative to RORs in 2021 in the multispecies (A) and ZEBOV-only (B) models. C, D) Top 1% ratio of RORs in multispecies (C) and ZEBOV-only (D) models, highlighting top 1% of prediction cells with 1-year increases in spillover ROR estimates from 2021 to 2022. Multispecies model combined BDBV, SUDV, and ZEBOV. RORs were calculated by using the estimated odds of Ebolavirus spillover divided by the average estimate across the entire study area. BDBV, Bundibugyo ebolavirus; ROR, relative odds ratio; SUDV, Sudan ebolavirus; ZEBOV, Zaire ebolavirus.

Figure 4. Change in estimated spillover RORs in 2022 compared with 2021 from a predictive model for estimating annual Ebolavirus spillover potential. A, B) Ratio of RORs for spillover in 2022 relative to RORs in 2021 in the multispecies (A) and ZEBOV-only (B) models. C, D) Top 1% ratio of RORs in multispecies (C) and ZEBOV-only (D) models, highlighting top 1% of prediction cells with 1-year increases in spillover ROR estimates from 2021 to 2022. Multispecies model combined BDBV, SUDV, and ZEBOV. RORs were calculated by using the estimated odds of Ebolavirus spillover divided by the average estimate across the entire study area. BDBV, Bundibugyo ebolavirus; ROR, relative odds ratio; SUDV, Sudan ebolavirus; ZEBOV, Zaire ebolavirus.

Main Article

Page created: February 10, 2025
Page updated: March 24, 2025
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