Volume 13, Number 9—September 2007
Research
Frequent Travelers and Rate of Spread of Epidemics
T. Déirdre Hollingsworth*
, Neil M. Ferguson*, and Roy M. Anderson*
, Neil M. Ferguson*, and Roy M. Anderson*
Table 2
Variability between runs in an epidemiologic model that simulates exportation of cases from SARS-like and influenza-like epidemics*
| Mixing pattern |
First case |
No. cases exported, mean, median (5th–95th percentile) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 10 |
Day 20 |
Day 30 |
Day 40 |
Day 50 |
||
| SARS | ||||||
| Homogeneous flying patterns | 0, 0 (0–0) | 0, 0 (0–1) | 1, 0 (0–3) | 3, 1 (0–7) | 7, 5 (1–16) | |
| Random mixing | High | 1, 0 (0–2) | 2, 0 (0–2) | 2, 1 (0–3) | 4, 2 (1–7) | 7, 5 (2–14) |
| Low | 0, 0 (0–0) | 0, 0 (0–1) | 1, 0 (0–3) | 3, 1 (0–6) | 7, 5 (1–15) | |
| Moderately assortative | High | 2, 1 (0–3) | 3, 2 (1–4) | 4 (3, 1–7) | 6 (4, 2–12) | 9, 7 (2–20) |
| Low | 0, 0 (0–0) | 0, 0 (0–1) | 1, 0 (0–2) | 3, 1 (0–6) | 7, 5 (0–15) | |
| Highly assortative |
High | 2, 1 (0–3) | 4, 2 (1–7) | 5, 5 (2–13) | 10, 8 (3–22) | 16, 12 (4–38) |
| Low |
0, 0 (0–0) |
0, 0 (0–1) |
1, 0 (0–2) |
3, 1 (0–6) |
6, 4 (1–15) |
|
| Influenza | ||||||
| Homogeneous flying patterns | 1, 0 (0–1) | 8, 5 (0–20) | 107, 85 (1–251) | 1,268, 1,069 (7–3,118) | 15,729, 13,541 (73–35,132) | |
| Random mixing | High | 1, 0 (0–2) | 7, 5 (0–18) | 89, 74 (1–233) | 1,341, 940 (1–3,049) | 14,592, 11,990 (1–35,632) |
| Low | 0, 0 (0–1) | 7, 5 (0–18) | 95, 78 (1– 246) | 1,264, 1,057 (7–3,256) | 15,668, 13,651 (74– 35,231) | |
| Moderately assortative | High | 2, 0 (0–3) | 8, 6 (0–32) | 93, 72 (1–231) | 1,288, 1,138 (1–3,387) | 15,505, 14,362 (1–32,134) |
| Low | 1, 0 (0–1) | 7, 5 (0–20) | 104, 83 (0–264) | 1,411, 1,213 (0–3,526) | 17,081, 15,850 (0–35,403) | |
| Highly assortative |
High | 3, 2 (0–7) | 15, 10 (2–41) | 106, 81 (2–291) | 1,166, 840 (2–2,923) | 14,145, 10,770 (2–34,351) |
| Low |
0, 0 (0–2) |
12, 0 (0–33) |
164, 139 (0–246) |
1,312, 967
(1–3,231) |
16,592, 12,607
(28–36,643) |
|
| *Means are shown in Figure 2. SARS, severe acute respiratory syndrome. | ||||||
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