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Volume 3, Number 2—June 1997
Perspective

The Economic Impact of a Bioterrorist Attack: Are Prevention and Postattack Intervention Programs Justifiable?

Arnold F. Kaufmann, Martin I. MeltzerComments to Author , and George P. Schmid
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Main Article

Table 4

The maximum annual actuarially fair premiuma by reduction in probability of event and size of avoided loss: Anthrax

Actuarially fair annual premium ($ millions)
Days post-attackb Preventable loss ($millions) 0.01
t0
0.001 0.01
to
0.0001 0.01
to
0.00001
Maximum loss estimatec
0 22,370.5 201.3 221.5 223.5
1 20,129.4 181.2 199.3 201.1
2 15,881.5 142.9 157.2 158.7
3 8,448.0 76.0 83.6 84.4
4 4,200.1 37.8 41.6 42.0
5 2,076.1 18.7 20.6 20.7
6 1,013.8 9.1 10.0 10.1
Minimum loss estimated
0 14,372.4 128.9 141.8 143.1
1 12,820.1 115.4 126.9 128.1
2 10,049.1 90.4 99.5 100.4
3 5,200.1 46.8 51.5 51.9
4 2,429.7 21.9 24.1 24.3
5 1,004.2 9.4 10.3 10.4
6 351.2 3.2 3.5 3.5

aSee text for definition.
bNo. of days from attack to effective initiation of prophylaxis.
cMaximum loss preventable (potential net savings) occurs with the doxycycline-anthrax vaccine prophylaxis regimen, a multiplication factor of 5 for unnecessary prophylaxis, and a discount rate of 3% (Table 2).
dMinimum loss preventable (potential net savings) occurs with the ciprofloxacin prophylaxis regimen, a multiplication factor of 15 for unnecessary prophylaxis, and a discount rate of 5% (Table 2).

Main Article

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Page updated: December 21, 2010
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The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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