Volume 9, Number 12—December 2003
Dispatch
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic in Asia
Guofa Zhou*
and Eugenia Lo*
and Eugenia Lo*
Table
Predicted epidemic cessation date and maximum number of cases severe acute respiratory syndrome
| Locality | Parameter estimationa |
Maximum no. of cases (95% CI)b | Epidemic cessation date (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tm | r | α | |||
| Beijing |
8.94 |
0.16 |
1.00 |
2,595
(2,541 to 2,649) |
June 27, 2003
(June 14 – July 10) |
| Hong Kong |
6.11 |
0.09 |
2.94 |
1,748
(1,619 to 1,777) |
June 29, 2003
(June 14 – July 14) |
| Singapore | 14.50 | 0.12 | 1.51 | 207 (191 to 223) | May 28, 2003 (May 20 – June 5) |
atm, the inflection point of the growth model; r, the intrinsic growth rate; α, the measurement of the extent of deviation of S-shaped dynamics from the classic logistic growth curve.
bCI, confidence interval.
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