Volume 9, Number 12—December 2003
Dispatch
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic in Asia
and Eugenia Lo*
Abstract
We analyzed the dynamics of cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Beijing using the Richards model. The predicted total SARS incidence was close to the actual number of cases; the predicted cessation date was close to the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval.
As of May 15, 2003, the cumulative number of reported probable cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was >7,600 worldwide (1). In the 28 countries reporting SARS cases, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), particularly the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Beijing Municipality, reported most of the cases. The Beijing municipal government took various measures to prevent the spread of SARS. As in Hong Kong (2,3), measures in Beijing included wearing masks and handwashing, mandatory home quarantine of persons who had contact with probable SARS patients, suspension of schools and universities for 2 weeks, restrictions on public gatherings, screening body temperatures of air travelers, discouragement of mass migration by air or train, designation of special hospitals for the treatment of SARS patients, and education on SARS transmission and personal protection. The number of new cases reported daily in Beijing were high (e.g., 39 new cases on May 14, 2003), and public and health authorities were concerned about how extensive the SARS epidemic might be and when the SARS epidemic might be brought under control if intervention measures were continued.
The Study (details in separate file)
Conclusions (details in separate file)
Dr. Guofa Zhou is a senior research scientist at the State University of New York at Buffalo. His research interest is the ecology and epidemiology of infectious diseases.
Dr. Guiyun Yan is an associate professor of biological sciences at SUNY Buffalo; his research focuses on the ecology and genetics of infectious diseases.
Acknowledgment
We thank three anonymous reviewers for their constructive criticism.
References
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- World Health Organization. Cumulative number of reported probable cases of SARS. [Accessed July 17, 2003] Available from: URL: http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_07_09/en/
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Please use the form below to submit correspondence to the authors or contact them at the following address:
Guofa Zhou, Department of Biological Sciences, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA; fax: 716-645-2975
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